How Much Social Security’s 2026 COLA Is Forecast to Increase Benefits for Retirees Ages 62 to 80

As Washington stares down yet another federal budget standoff, millions of retirees are anxiously eyeing the calendar. If the government shutdown stretches past October 15, 2025, it could delay—but crucially, not derail—the announcement of the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). For now, there’s good news and bad news: your checks will keep coming, but the official announcement of next year’s raise might arrive fashionably late.

How the COLA Is Calculated—And Why It’s Safe

Each fall, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces the annual COLA, which determines how much benefits will increase in the new year. The adjustment is pegged to inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)—a measure compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that tracks the cost of everyday items like food, fuel, and housing.

Here’s the key point: even during a government shutdown, the BLS continues to release CPI data because it’s deemed an “essential function.” That means the September 2025 inflation report—the final piece of the COLA puzzle—will still come out on time.

So the math behind the raise will be ready, even if the announcement itself is delayed.

Process Step	Responsible Agency	Shutdown Status
Collect inflation data	Bureau of Labor Statistics	Continues (essential)
Calculate COLA	SSA (automated formula)	Continues
Announce COLA publicly	SSA communications staff	Could be delayed
Deposit benefit payments	Treasury & SSA	Continues

In short, the COLA is written into law. It doesn’t need Congress or a continuing resolution to take effect. The adjustment is automatic once CPI-W data are available.

What Could Be Delayed

Where retirees might feel the impact is in timing and communication. If SSA’s communications, IT, and public affairs staff are furloughed, they won’t be able to issue the press release, update the SSA website, or mail out official notices.

So while the COLA number will exist, you might not hear about it until after the shutdown ends.

The SSA’s announcement, while largely symbolic, serves an important purpose: it confirms the raise, updates benefit calculators, and allows retirees to plan budgets and Medicare decisions. Without it, retirees may be left guessing for a few weeks.

Benefits Keep Flowing—Even During a Shutdown

Here’s the bottom line: Social Security and SSI payments will continue as usual.

These benefits are paid from dedicated trust funds, not the annual congressional appropriations that shutdowns disrupt. As the Social Security Administration notes, operations tied directly to benefit payments are considered essential.

During past shutdowns—including the 35-day stalemate in 2018–2019—the SSA continued sending checks, though some offices ran with skeleton crews. Expect longer wait times, limited field office hours, and slower responses to appeals or benefit corrections.

The Projected 2026 COLA: A Modest Boost

According to early estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), the 2026 COLA is projected at around 2.7%—slightly higher than 2025’s 2.5% increase.

That’s modest, but meaningful, given that inflation remains sticky in key categories like food and housing.

Year	COLA %	Average Monthly Benefit	Average Increase
2024	3.2%	$1,848	+$59
2025	2.5%	$1,895	+$47
2026 (projected)	2.7%	$1,949	+$54

The official figure will be finalized once the September 2025 CPI-W data are released by the BLS in mid-October. Most analysts don’t expect significant deviation from current projections.

What a Prolonged Shutdown Could Mean

A short shutdown—say, a few days or even two weeks—won’t meaningfully affect benefit delivery or calculations. But if the impasse drags into months, the ripple effects grow.

Potential impacts include:

• Longer SSA call center wait times
• Delayed processing of new claims and appeals
• Suspended issuance of replacement Social Security cards
• Limited field office hours or closures

Still, the checks will keep arriving. The shutdown affects bureaucratic speed, not benefit continuity.

Why the COLA Announcement Matters

For retirees on fixed incomes, the COLA is more than an inflation number—it’s a signal for the year ahead. Many seniors use the October announcement to adjust their budgets, plan Medicare decisions, and estimate how much of their benefits might be taxable.

“Retirees count on this announcement for their financial planning,” says Mary Johnson, a policy analyst with TSCL. “Even a few weeks’ delay can create anxiety, especially for those already struggling to cover rising costs.”

How to Stay Ready and Informed

If you’re a Social Security or SSI beneficiary, you don’t need to take any action. Your benefit increase is automatic, whether or not the government is fully open. But here’s how to stay ahead:

1. Check the BLS site around mid-October for CPI-W data releases (bls.gov).
2. Watch for SSA updates on ssa.gov once operations resume.
3. Set up a “My Social Security” account to get digital notifications about your benefit changes.
4. Avoid misinformation on social media—official announcements come directly from SSA or major financial outlets.

If the shutdown ends by late October, the SSA could still make the official COLA announcement before the month closes.

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